By Fridah Mbuvi, June 19, 2026
Four years after the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine war, Kenyan consumers are once again feeling the effects of the conflict, with food and non-alcoholic beverage inflation rising to 9.4 percent amid persistent disruptions in global agricultural supply chains.
The latest inflationary pressures have been attributed to continued instability in the Black Sea region, which remains a major source of wheat and fertilizer imports for Kenya.
According to trade data, Kenya’s dependence on Eastern Europe for wheat supplies has left the country vulnerable to prolonged geopolitical shocks. Before the conflict, Russia accounted for approximately 67 percent of Kenya’s wheat imports, while Ukraine supplied a further 22 percent.
However, disruptions caused by the war have resulted in a significant decline in imports from the region. Trade volumes with Russia have dropped sharply from Sh79.1 billion to Sh33.3 billion, while overall imports from the affected region have fallen by more than 54 percent.
The supply shortages have translated into higher costs for millers and food processors, with consumers ultimately bearing the burden through increased prices of bread, wheat flour, and other staple products.
Agricultural experts say the pressure has been compounded by volatility in fertilizer prices, which continue to affect local food production despite government interventions.
While subsidized fertilizer programs have helped cushion farmers, privately sourced Di-Ammonium Phosphate (DAP) fertilizer still costs between Sh4,500 and over Sh6,000 per bag, increasing the overall cost of cultivation and food production.
The renewed surge in food prices comes after inflation peaked at 9.5 percent in late 2022 before easing temporarily. Analysts note that while overall inflation moderated in subsequent years, food inflation has once again accelerated in 2026 due to persistent global supply constraints and climate-related challenges.
In response, the government has continued to implement measures aimed at reducing the impact of international shocks. These include duty-free grain import programs and expanded fertilizer subsidies designed to lower production costs and improve food availability.
Agricultural experts are also advocating for a long-term shift toward climate-resilient and locally adapted crops such as millet and sorghum. They argue that increasing domestic production and diversifying food sources would reduce Kenya’s dependence on imported wheat and strengthen national food security.
Economists warn that unless global supply chains stabilize and local production improves significantly, households may continue to face elevated food prices, placing additional strain on already stretched family budgets.
With food costs remaining a major contributor to inflation, policymakers are under increasing pressure to strike a balance between short-term interventions and sustainable agricultural reforms aimed at insulating the country from external shocks.
